On Sunday, the World Bank in its latest edition of the South Asia Economic Focus said India's growth rate is projected to fall to 6 per cent in 2019 from 6.9 per cent of 2018.
"IMF estimates that global GDP would be reduced by 0.6% in 2020 if October/December tariffs do not take effect, instead of 0.8% reduction", Gopinath added. Georgieva said last week that this translates to a loss of $700 billion, or the equivalent of making Switzerland's economy disappear.
About the worldwide scenario, IMF's Chief Economist Gita Gopinath wrote in the foreword to the WEO: "The global economy is in a synchronized slowdown, with growth for 2019 downgraded again - to 3 percent - its slowest pace since the global financial crisis (in 2007-08)".
Services were still strong across much of the world, but there were some signs of softening in services in the United States and Europe, Gopinath said. But this forecast was a tenth of a point lower than in July and was vulnerable to downside risks, including worse trade tensions, Brexit-related disruptions and an abrupt aversion to risk in financial markets.
The growth projection for 2019 is the slowest pace since the global financial crisis in 2008. Investors are awaiting more clarity on whether a breakthrough in the U.S.
But she welcomed news of a truce in the US-China conflict, announced Friday after talks in Washington.
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"Consequently, trade volume growth in the first half of 2019 is at 1 per cent, the weakest level since 2012, Gopinath said".
About half of this is driven by recoveries or shallower recessions in stressed emerging markets, such as Turkey, Argentina, and Iran, and the rest by recoveries in countries where growth slowed significantly in 2019 relative to 2018, such as Brazil, Mexico, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, the International Monetary Fund chief economist said.
WEO projected China's economic growth to slow down to 5.8 per cent next year. "Such actions can significantly boost confidence, rejuvenate investment, halt the slide in trade and manufacturing and raise world growth". Officials from around the world will convene as President Donald Trump's trade policies remain one of the biggest global threats.
It predicted Indian growth will slow to 6.1% this year, from 6.8% in the previous year. The lender found that it would drive up consumer prices and reduce domestic demand, while throttling the spread of technology to emerging economies. "There is no room for policy mistakes and an urgent need for policy makers to cooperatively de-escalate trade and geopolitical tensions".
But trade is not the only reason for the global slowdown: the report notes that in China's economy, for example, growth is moderating as intended amid slowing domestic demand.