A low pressure area now over Georgia will move south and be in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
The National Hurricane Center says there is a 80% chance that the low will become a tropical depression or tropical storm by the end of the work week.
While named tropical systems usually catch our attention, the effects of this weather pattern change little whether this system forms or not. Around one to two inches of widespread rain is possible between Wednesday through Saturday morning, with some isolated higher amounts under any heavy downpours. Both models have been indicating the overall scenario of low pressure forming in the Gulf, even if the specifics and timing vary a bit. The National Hurricane Center forecast a 0% of tropical formation in the next 2 days, and a 60% chance in the next 5 days.
Regardless of whether the disturbance develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, local impacts remain the same. None of the forecast models are calling for more than a tropical storm at landfall. Temperatures reach the mid 90s the next couple of afternoons and with humidity, it's going to feel more like triple digits.
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By early in the week, a sagging front, along which almost daily thunderstorms have been forming in the Southeast US, will end up in the Gulf.
Over the weekend, the National Weather Service in Miami began issuing a Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook for the Gulf Coast for a potential system that may develop later this week.
Sweltering heat will continue through the work week with dry days through Thursday.
This storm will be close enough to us through Wednesday to bring the potential for some heavy rainfall before it slowly heads west toward Texas or Louisiana.