The EIA lowered its 2019 world oil demand growth forecast by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.22 million bpd and wound back its forecast for 2019 U.S. crude production to 12.32 million bpd, 140,000 bpd less than the May forecast.
"This effectively gives us an extra 300,000-400,000 barrels per day of supply", said FGE Chairman Fereidun Fesharaki.
"The fact that this surplus has been mounting during the past couple of months despite a near record pace of exports in recent weeks is not only suggesting weak demand from the refiners but also a much stronger pace of imports than we had anticipated", Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
It reduced its 2019 world oil demand growth forecast by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.22 million bpd, although it also wound back its forecast for 2019 USA crude production to 12.32 million bpd, 140,000 bpd less than the May forecast.
Oil prices have more than halved in the past two years after Saudi Arabia raised output steeply in an attempt to drive higher-cost producers such as U.S. shale firms out of the market.
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"It is just thinking aloud about what to do in case trade tensions are exacerbated with potentially huge adverse impacts on the world economy, and thus oil demand", said one of the sources familiar with the matter.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated producers including Russian Federation, known collectively as OPEC+, have withheld supplies since the start of the year to prop up prices.
FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack is seen at the Sinopec-operated Shengli oil field in Dongying, Shandong province, China January 12, 2017.
The 25-member alliance agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day from the start of this year after oil prices dipped by more than 30 percent late last year.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Friday OPEC was close to agreeing to extend a pact on cutting oil supplies beyond June, although more talks were still needed with the non-OPEC countries that were also part of the deal. "A lot depends on the market situation in the second half of the year, on the balance of supply and demand, on how events will develop - with uncertainties, trade wars, sanctions pressure", Novak said.