International Monetary Fund lowers SA's economic growth forecasts
- by Patty Hardy
- in Business
- — Oct 10, 2018
The possible failure of Brexit negotiations also dampened the eurozone's growth outlook.
It said that a full-blown trade war between the U.S. and China would put a significant dent in economic recovery.
In Bali on Tuesday, IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said the rupee was "too rigid and overvalued". Not only have some downside risks that the last WEO identified been realised, the likelihood of further negative shocks to our growth forecast has risen.
When Trump met European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker in Washington in July, the United States president also offered him a "wide-open" trade accord with no tariffs, barriers, or subsidies of any kind, but Europe was not ready for that, Sondland said.
A Western trade bloc would help U.S. strategy to curb Chinese growth and expansionism, Sondland said. Dow futures lost 0.5 per cent and the S&P 500 futures were down 0.6 per cent.
"It also expects the economy to grow 1.4 per cent in 2019, down from a previous estimate of 1.7 per cent".
Meanwhile, the British economy would grow by 1.1 percent this year, not 1.3 percent, as the International Monetary Fund had previously forecast, due to uncertainty on Brexit.
Besides the fear of slowing global growth, Wall Street has come under recent pressure after Treasury yields hit multi-year highs as strong data fueled fears about rising inflation and potentially faster interest rate hikes.
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That includes President Donald Trump´s imposition of tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, as well as on aluminum, steel and other products worldwide.
The IMF chief economist said that while government officials have been moving to rein in China's credit expansion, it was understandable they would take steps to boost growth in the face of trade tensions with the United States, and these have impacted short-term economic growth, affecting the yuan. For next year, trade is seen growing just four percent, a half point less than the prior forecast. The May federal budget forecast 3 per cent GDP in 2018-19 and the same the following financial year.
Many emerging economies, he noted, are managing relatively well - given the common tightening they face - using established monetary frameworks based on exchange rate flexibility.
"Considerable progress was made in Russian Federation in recent years to shore up financial stability, including by closing weak banks, introducing reforms to the resolution framework, enacting measures to reduce dollarization, and increasing the risk weights of unsecured consumer and mortgage loans", the International Monetary Fund said.
Instead, the Chinese maintain, they have boosted the country's economic growth and provided 70,000 jobs.
"IMF's downgrade just goes to show how the tariff dispute between USA and China is beginning to take its toll on the global economy", said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in NY. In several key economies, moreover, growth is being supported by policies that seem unsustainable over the long term.
The IMF-World Bank meeting is an annual summit to discuss global financial and economic issues, including global economic outlook, poverty eradication, and aid effectiveness.
