When it comes to the heat, the biggest factors leading to this year's prediction is the 70 to 75 percent chance of an El Nino developing over the Pacific ocean, blowing warm winds from the west.
"That does not mean that below average temperatures can not occur", Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.
The NOAA outlook covers the months of December, January and February, when the average high temperatures in Portland are 37 degrees, 31 degrees and 35 degrees, respectively. This change in sea surface temperature has a wide range of effects on seasonal weather patterns across the globe, but in the US, an El Niño typically means warmer winter temperatures, and higher levels of precipitation in certain regions of the country. Due to this, above-average temperatures look likely for the northern and western United States, Alaska and Hawaii.
Winter weather expert Judah Cohen, of the private company Atmospheric and Environmental Research, uses different indicators to predict winter for the National Science Foundation. The WYMT Weather team will have their 2018-2019 Winter Outlook for Eastern Kentucky on Tuesday, November 20th.
The NOAA said that the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
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Drought conditions may worsen in much of Southern and Central California, although the north coast of California may see some relief, according to NOAA.
No place in the U.S.is expected to experience cooler-than-average temperatures, according to NOAA. The chances are highest in southeastern Georgia and much of northern and central Florida.
- Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.
NOAA's seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are expected to change, but the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations.
If the snowfall earlier this week reminded you how much you don't like the winter cold, you may be in luck. "We stand by our forecast and formula, which accurately predicted the many storms last winter, as well as this summer's steamy, hot conditions", editor Peter Geiger wrote.